Otto Kobler,Branch Manager
NMLS ID# 225957 CA BRE ID# 00981742
3550 Round Barn Blvd., Suite 310 Santa Rosa, CA 95403
Branch NMLS ID# 379493
I’ll be discussing a recent article by Robert J. Shiller (of Case/Shiller Fame) where he discusses probable reasons FOR the surge but is really at a loss as to WHEN it will end and WHAT will cause it to stumble and fall. He writes of the three great booms and how this current one is #3 on his list. It’s startling when you realize he really doesn’t have a clue as to WHEN it will fail and by how much. We’ll be discussing this on the show as I read excerpts from his recent article. CLICK HERE for the full article as it appeared in the New York Times.
I’m delighted to have old friend and tried and true Lender, Denise Stiles on my show for the first time! She brings a wealth of knowledge and experience having worked with some of the largest loan originators in the business. She is passionate about her work and it shows with her excellent customer care. Welcome Denise to the Real Estate Hour, Sunday, December 2nd. Usual hours! 9 to 10am pst. Tune us in at KSRO, 1350AM, 103.5 or 94.5FM or www.KSRO.com. And don’t forget–if you missed any words of wisdom or just like listening to my sonorous voice here’s a link to our “Ask the Expert” page on the KSRO web site–CLICK HERE!
For Denise Stiles, the greatest joy of working in the mortgage industry is helping her clients achieve their homeownership dreams. She understands that owning a home is the first step toward true financial freedom and will do everything she can to make the homebuying process as easy as possible. Specializing in new construction loans, Denise also possesses a deep knowledge pertaining to jumbo, conforming, FHA and VA loans. She especially loves helping our nation’s veterans own their dream home.
Good morning to one and all! Here’s some data I’ll be discussing this morning on “The Real Estate Hour” heard every Sunday, 9 to 10am pst. 1350AM, 103.5 and 94.5FM and www.KSRO.com. Above is a chart showing how far we’ve come from the “Depth” of the recession in relation to median home price in the Bay Area. The top 4 counties with the biggest come back are in double digits. Sonoma County? 3% above.
Currently we have 1055 “Active” or “Showable” Detached Single Family dwellings listing in Sonoma County-for a population of 500,000+. Slim Pickens!
Of those “Active” listings 316 are $1+Million! or 30%.
Here’s a price breakdown:
$251,000 to $499999 122
$500,000 to $749,999 422
$750,000 to $999,999 190
1+Million to $1,249,999 65
$1,250,000 to $,1499,999 53
$1,500,000 to $1,749,999 31
$175,000 to $1,999,999 29
$2+ Million 128.
Condos–Total of 117.
Solds–obviously due to the Fires of last year the October Sales will be skewed. After October 9th our “Cancelled” and “Expired” listings shot through the roof as those homes listed and lost in the fire left the market. Sales plummeted but soon heralded a big boom in the $1+Million price point as folks replaced lost homes.
Today we have current 266 Sold sales to date–last year 182.
We are seeing some pretty dramatic increases in Median home pricing due to the purchases made by not only fire victims but also those seeking to live in our gorgeous “Destination” county. Graph above shows the City of Sonoma and how the median home price has soared over last year at this time. Areas in Sonoma County where the “Active” listings median home price tops $1,000,000: Sea Ranch ($1,174,500), Sonoma ($1,587,500), Petaluma West ($1,087,000), Sebastopol ($1,150,000), Healdsburg ($1,395,000.
However, inventory continues to be weak but is surging. The amount of “Active” or “Showable” listings for the entire county jumped over 800 this week but this is still a weak number. The only area of Sonoma County with some double digit price segments is in the NorthWest area of Santa Rosa. So still skinny. Ironic that the 2nd hardest area hit by the October fires has the most inventory.
Remember, our inventory reflects the following areas of Sonoma County, a population over 500,000: Santa Rosa NW,NE,SE,SW, Petaluma E and W, Healdsburg, Cotati, Rohnert Park, Windsor, Sebastopol, Russian River, Sonoma (city of), Coastal Sonoma, Penngrove, Cloverdale, Oakmont,Annapolis, Sea Ranch
We seem to be suffering under the MORE INVENTORY WILL EQUAL MORE SALES notion. Granted, more inventory would allow more choice, lower our appreciation rate as we’d have more to choose from with fewer overbidding, but note the sales are NOT that dramatically different when there is more inventory. Looking back 10 years you can see in the light green the huge amount of inventory vs. today’s anemic numbers. However, the sales do not look all that much different.
3rd quarter “affordability” numbers for Sonoma County and the NorthBay. We are now at 25% or 1 in 4 folks can afford to buy the median home priced at $630,000. You payment will be $3,180 per month with total income needed of $127,100. And this was BEFORE the “Fire Storms”. Now throw in scarcity and things are just very, very tight! Housing Crisis
We’ve discussed “Crowdfunding” previously for raising money for home improvement, down-payment for a loan but the funds all needed to be “seasoned” and would have to be usually 6 months old before being counted as legitimate funds by the big government lenders–Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Now CMG has partnered with the two big GSE’s in making the crowdfunding money available immediately for a down-payment. We’ll discuss what changed and how you can use this way to raise money to buy a house.
Why go on a “destination” wedding which may cost $50,000 when you REALLY want to buy a home?!
Open House today! Sunday, July 9th –1 to 4pm. $829,900. EZ directions–Bennett Valley rd to Sonoma Mountain and down about a mile on the left hand side. Allison and I are pleased with this terrific new offering in the heart of Bennett Valley. Home is just around 1600 sqft with 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. New carpeting in living room area, interior paint, new gorgeous redwood deck with easterly views for morning coffee. All on 1.50+ acres and single level living. Bring your animals, critters, shop dreams, chickens, 4-H projects, whatever! Open today 1 to 4pm.
Here in the lovely “Wine Country” housing market you can’t be complaining about the interest rates! If you are retiring in 7 years and perhaps moving to another area then hook onto a refinance as your rate would be 3.125% Wow! Or opt for a 15 year loan and enjoy super low rates and rapid equity build up.