Category Archives: Monthly Sales Statistics Sonoma County

Revising initial Real Estate Sales for June-BIG month! +8% and almost 500 sales

Revised June Sales 499

We had a lot of “late” reporting of sales for July. I should have anticipated this due to the 4th of July 4 day holiday. It’s all GOOD though. We almost hit 500 sales falling JUST one short! Sales are up 8% over last year and total sales of SFD (single family dwellings–houses) was 499. This is good as all of last year we NEVER hit this vaunted mark. Under Contracts seem to be same as last month so perhaps we’ll break through the 500 barrier next month.

Below are the UC or Under Control houses, those now in escrow. Note the steep increase beginning back in January. We’ve flattened a tad over the last 2 months but could see increased sales on the horizon. All good!

Houses now in escrow. Portend of things to come?
Houses now in escrow. Portend of things to come?

Sales for November of 2016 Sonoma County, California

Heading into the Holidays with low inventory and weak sales.
Heading into the Holidays with low inventory and weak sales.

Here’s the “Tale of the Tape” for home sales, Sonoma County, California, November 2016.

Median home price is up 9% over last year at this time but this is due to the tight inventory market, buyer demand and rates on the rise. As of this writing, December 7, 2016, rates are hovering just at 4 to 4.25%. So the threat of rising rates is bringing those looking to the table. It should be noted we have only 575 “Active” listings for every town in Sonoma County–all price points. Slim pickens

While the median SOLD price is $575,000, the “On the Market” median home price is $749,00. This means of those 575 homes half are below and above that number. Sales are actualy up +2%, or pretty darn close to “Flat” year over year. The “Solds” for 2016 never broke 500 sales in any month. Last year we had two months of 500+ sales.

An indicator of things to come is the “Under Contract” numbers which are down -8% over last year. But this is also seasonal as the slowest months of the year are upon us. Inventory is as you’d expect–down. New properties entering the market -6% and total inventory down -15% year over year.

Positives? DOM or Days on the Market is down -33%! 50 days is the time and our MSI or Month’s Supply of Inventory is only 1.8 months. Put this in context: a “normal” market is 4-6 months supply, under that its a Seller’s market. We have a BIG TIME Seller’s Market!

Here in Sonoma County,Ca our inventory is very tight and days on the market down to 50!
Here in Sonoma County,Ca our inventory is very tight and days on the market down to 50!

Still, if you are a buyer keep at it! Especially if you are below the median home price of $575,000. Less competition and motivated Sellers are a good combination for you! Let us know if we can help! 707-322-8503! Mike Kelly.

 

 

Santa Rosa is Lucky #13 of the top 20 Markets in the Country!

Realtor.com came out with their 20 Hottest real estate markets in the nation. 11 of these are in California and we’ve added two NEW spots–Eureka and Fresno. Eureka is way up north on the coast of California. Isolated, older fishing community but it is very affordable as is Fresno which is in the “Valley”.  “Valley” properties in the greatest state of California are fairly depressed and still have higher percentages of distressed homes. They have yet to get even close to their pre-bust highs. If you look at the top lists you’ll see 4 of these hottest market are in the California interior valleys—Sacramento, Stockton (at one time ground zero for the distressed market in California), Modesto and Fresno. What they all have in common is affordability. Median priced homes in these areas range from $270,000 to $317,000. Compare these prices with Santa Rosa (#13 on the list with a median price of $597,500).

Top "Hottest" real estate markets in the nature--Santa Rosa is lucky 13!
Top “Hottest” real estate markets in the nature–Santa Rosa is lucky 13!

  Continue reading Santa Rosa is Lucky #13 of the top 20 Markets in the Country!

On this week’s show: April Sales and Market Activity–Flat, lack-luster here in Sonoma County.

Here are Sonoma County April Sales information. Big take-aways? Lack of inventory but increasing, Median home price up “only” 6% over last year. 1.5 Month’s Supply of Inventory (4-6 months is considered “normal”.

MSI

Average Days on the market is a remarkable 42 days. Note how this number has been dropping. Blame low inventory and big Buyer demand due to historically LOW interest rates in the upper 3% range.

AverageDOM

Homes for sale by month is down -10% over last year–c’mon–let’s get those homes on the market!

ForSaleProp

New properties coming to the market is down slightly.

NewProperties

Indicator of future activity is the “Under Contract” properties down -5% over last year. Hmmmm?

UC

Sold Properties by month is down -13%. This with historically low rates? Price wall happening?

SoldsMay

Median Home price shows dramatic slowing of higher price activity.

Medianhomepricemay

 

Putting today’s market into context.

Below is a graph with some very interesting stats which give me pause and commentary. This is a look going back 10 years to the wild and crazy pre-“crash” days of yore. The first thing which amazes me is the amount of homes for sale vs. today. 8,230 listing  3rd qtr of ’07 vs. this past quarter’s measly 1393.

 

1stqtr05vs1stqtr2016

The MSI or Month’s Supply of Inventory, is another indication of a fast, tight market. From 11.7 months supply (big Buyer’s market), 1st qtr of ’08 to 1.8 months supply 1st qtr of this year. New listings per quarter? Past quarter is the lowest in 11 years. Yeah, where are all those listing!?

Homes Available by Price Bracket-National vs. Sonoma County.

Here in the “Wine Country” of Sonoma County, California–home availability is very tight and our price brackets for homes do NOT reflect very well for affordability when compared to the overall nation. See the graph below.

SalesPricePointDifferenceFeboverFeb2016

Yes, there are places in the nation where homes/condos are readily available for UNDER $100,000. And you’d be very surprised how much home you can get up to $250,000. In Sonoma County it is slim to none and slim just left town. Our big price point is $500,000 to $750,000 followed by the next highest price bracket. The age old question of affordability–where do all the service folks, teachers, police officers, fireman, find a home without breaking the monthly budget? Tis the question!

Bubble? Not with this lack of inventory–but affordability woes persist.

Here in Sonoma County, California, “The Wine Country”, we are seeing persistent scarce homes to sell and lack of affordable homes is raising its ugly little head. The only category where sales are out-performing last year is in two price categories: $500 to $750K and $750 to $1,000,000K. These are for detached single family houses.

SalesPricePointDifferenceFeboverFeb2016

Home Affordability Crisis looming? OR is it here now?

Here in the “Wine Country” of Sonoma County, California, home prices have moderated over the past 5 months but affordability reached a new “post-crash” low of 24%. This means only 24% of our citizens can afford to buy the median home price of $529,000 based on the county wide median income.
Median home price has been flat for 6 months. However, affordability is lacking.
Median home price has been flat for 6 months. However, affordability is lacking. Numbers over columns are Sales for the month. Biggest sale month in July which you can expect considering this is when everyone is moving about before the schools start but also while folks are moving INTO the area or are here as tourists. 

Here is what we look like as far as the Bay Area affordability index:

Sonoma County is the 2nd most affordable county in the Bay Area but way behind the affordability leader--Solano County with 44%!
Sonoma County is the 2nd most affordable county in the Bay Area but way behind the affordability leader–Solano County with 44%!
And if you think 24% affordability is tough just look at those poor buyers in San Francisco, San Mateo or Santa Clara counties. Affordability leader is Solano County at 44%. Remember though, this “formula” used by the California Assoc. of Realtors is based on buyers making the median income for their county and using 20% down. Granted, not every buyer has 20% down (believe me on this one!) but it is a constant which measures long term affordability. Either way, the trend does not bode well for buyers. Now if the FED increases rates, which by every indication they will, the affordability rate could plummet further. When we encourage you to buy this is NOT a hollow, sales person’s chant–it is based on trends. Also, the FED has stated they may NOT make the increases small. Back in 2000 we were also lamenting the lack of affordable housing but rates then were 8.21%!! Today we have 3.875%. Now REALLY is the time to buy!

Otto Kobler, Summit Funding Joins us on the Real Estate Hour – New Loan Programs and Updates

Did you miss it??…here’s the podcast;

Real Estate Hour favorite, Otto Kobler of Summit Funding will explain a new more -flexible (?) Fannie Mae loan. Plus; What’s up with interest rates, Jumbo financing, Bridge loans, and more.

Otto Kobler Summit Funding, Inc. Branch Manager / Senior Loan Officer okobler@summitfunding.net
Otto Kobler
Summit Funding, Inc.
Branch Manager / Senior Loan Officer
okobler@summitfunding.net

NMLS ID#: 225957
CA BRE ID#: 00981742
1400 N. Dutton Avenue Suite 5
Santa Rosa, CA 95401
Office: (707) 522-6300 (Ext: 311)
Fax: (707) 522-6303
Email: okobler@summitfunding.ne

– See more at: http://www.summitfunding.net/okobler#sthash.c3kBjNOr.dpuf

1 minute housing market update for Sonoma County, California

The new years is getting off to a slow start. January was the worst “Sales” month in 7 years. We sold, for the entire county, only 221 “Detached” homes. February, with only 28 days, didn’t boast any significant increase over January with a meager 241 homes closed.

1 year of "Detached" single family homes in Sonoma County
1 year of “Detached” single family homes in Sonoma County

Our median home price in Sonoma County is now hovering at $490,000. I expect this to increase as we are seeing much overbidding due to the lack of inventory. Note we broke the $500,000 medium home price threshold a few times last year. We are up year over year 9% which is WAY down from the double digit 20% numbers over the past three years which saw our median home price for the county soar 58%! (see chart below)

We have a seasonal market for sure but we should be picking up speed now.
We have a seasonal market for sure but we should be picking up speed now.

The lack of inventory is creating this “shortage” of sales. WE now have just over 500 “Active” or “Showable” listings in ALL of Sonoma County. This means for Petaluma, Cotati, Rohnert Park, All of Santa Rosa, Windsor, Healdsburg, Cloverdale, Sonoma, Oakmont, Kenwood and Sebastopol PLUS our coastal communities and the Russian River!! NOT Much at all.

New homes are coming to the market but the demand seems to be outstripping this supply
New homes are coming to the market but the demand seems to be outstripping this supply

Good news for all those buyers out there is the above slide showing the “new homes” coming to the market which is up +10% over last year at this time. However, having such a skinny supply of homes means these new homes are getting snapped up so our “Active” or “Showable” listings just don’t get increased by any significant amount.

Bottom line? If you are thinking of selling try and take advantage of this lack of supply before the major thrust of listings hit the market. Buying? Maybe hang out a bit and wait for inventory to increase as in today’s market you’ll be paying more as overbidding is rampant. Either way, we can help you with ALL of your real estate needs. Thinking of moving out of the area? Allison and I have many super Realtors not only in the U.S. but also abroad we can refer you to.

Call Allison at: 707-799-3617 for an appointment to discuss our marketing strategies or email us at nodumbquestion@gmail.com because in real estate Allison and I believe there are NO dumb questions!