I’ll be discussing a recent article by Robert J. Shiller (of Case/Shiller Fame) where he discusses probable reasons FOR the surge but is really at a loss as to WHEN it will end and WHAT will cause it to stumble and fall. He writes of the three great booms and how this current one is #3 on his list. It’s startling when you realize he really doesn’t have a clue as to WHEN it will fail and by how much. We’ll be discussing this on the show as I read excerpts from his recent article. CLICK HERE for the full article as it appeared in the New York Times.
Good morning to one and all! Here’s some data I’ll be discussing this morning on “The Real Estate Hour” heard every Sunday, 9 to 10am pst. 1350AM, 103.5 and 94.5FM and www.KSRO.com. Above is a chart showing how far we’ve come from the “Depth” of the recession in relation to median home price in the Bay Area. The top 4 counties with the biggest come back are in double digits. Sonoma County? 3% above.
Currently we have 1055 “Active” or “Showable” Detached Single Family dwellings listing in Sonoma County-for a population of 500,000+. Slim Pickens!
Of those “Active” listings 316 are $1+Million! or 30%.
Here’s a price breakdown:
$251,000 to $499999 122
$500,000 to $749,999 422
$750,000 to $999,999 190
1+Million to $1,249,999 65
$1,250,000 to $,1499,999 53
$1,500,000 to $1,749,999 31
$175,000 to $1,999,999 29
$2+ Million 128.
Condos–Total of 117.
Solds–obviously due to the Fires of last year the October Sales will be skewed. After October 9th our “Cancelled” and “Expired” listings shot through the roof as those homes listed and lost in the fire left the market. Sales plummeted but soon heralded a big boom in the $1+Million price point as folks replaced lost homes.
Today we have current 266 Sold sales to date–last year 182.
For the past few months the $1Mil+ price segment has been very robust. While the overall market languished in mediocrity, except for a record high median home price which quickly fell the following month, the $1Mil+ range was surging. June sales, off -20% in the overall market was UP +20% in the $1Mil+ market. Huge spread. The market, driven by fire victims replacing homes lost in the fires of October 017, are buying and rehabbing homes. If you look at the NE area and examine Lot sales you’ll find many NOT rebuilding. Currently we have approx 174 lots for sale with 33 in escrow and a whopping 247 that have sold.
The big question? Where have all of these homeowners gone? Have they moved away, moved down, moved within their price range relative to the value of the lost home? Here’s some charts on the latest activity:
The buying season has been thoroughly mejdiocre in 2018. Year Over Year (YOY) reporting shows a market with anemic sales overall. Inventory beginning to accumulate due to weak sales and a median home price, countywide, faltering from a record high posted in June of $705,000 and an increase of 13% to $653,000 in July and an increase of a mere 3%.
We are seeing some pretty dramatic increases in Median home pricing due to the purchases made by not only fire victims but also those seeking to live in our gorgeous “Destination” county. Graph above shows the City of Sonoma and how the median home price has soared over last year at this time. Areas in Sonoma County where the “Active” listings median home price tops $1,000,000: Sea Ranch ($1,174,500), Sonoma ($1,587,500), Petaluma West ($1,087,000), Sebastopol ($1,150,000), Healdsburg ($1,395,000.
However, inventory continues to be weak but is surging. The amount of “Active” or “Showable” listings for the entire county jumped over 800 this week but this is still a weak number. The only area of Sonoma County with some double digit price segments is in the NorthWest area of Santa Rosa. So still skinny. Ironic that the 2nd hardest area hit by the October fires has the most inventory.
Remember, our inventory reflects the following areas of Sonoma County, a population over 500,000: Santa Rosa NW,NE,SE,SW, Petaluma E and W, Healdsburg, Cotati, Rohnert Park, Windsor, Sebastopol, Russian River, Sonoma (city of), Coastal Sonoma, Penngrove, Cloverdale, Oakmont,Annapolis, Sea Ranch
3rd quarter “affordability” numbers for Sonoma County and the NorthBay. We are now at 25% or 1 in 4 folks can afford to buy the median home priced at $630,000. You payment will be $3,180 per month with total income needed of $127,100. And this was BEFORE the “Fire Storms”. Now throw in scarcity and things are just very, very tight! Housing Crisis
We had a lot of “late” reporting of sales for July. I should have anticipated this due to the 4th of July 4 day holiday. It’s all GOOD though. We almost hit 500 sales falling JUST one short! Sales are up 8% over last year and total sales of SFD (single family dwellings–houses) was 499. This is good as all of last year we NEVER hit this vaunted mark. Under Contracts seem to be same as last month so perhaps we’ll break through the 500 barrier next month.
Below are the UC or Under Control houses, those now in escrow. Note the steep increase beginning back in January. We’ve flattened a tad over the last 2 months but could see increased sales on the horizon. All good!
Here’s the “Tale of the Tape” for home sales, Sonoma County, California, November 2016.
Median home price is up 9% over last year at this time but this is due to the tight inventory market, buyer demand and rates on the rise. As of this writing, December 7, 2016, rates are hovering just at 4 to 4.25%. So the threat of rising rates is bringing those looking to the table. It should be noted we have only 575 “Active” listings for every town in Sonoma County–all price points. Slim pickens
While the median SOLD price is $575,000, the “On the Market” median home price is $749,00. This means of those 575 homes half are below and above that number. Sales are actualy up +2%, or pretty darn close to “Flat” year over year. The “Solds” for 2016 never broke 500 sales in any month. Last year we had two months of 500+ sales.
An indicator of things to come is the “Under Contract” numbers which are down -8% over last year. But this is also seasonal as the slowest months of the year are upon us. Inventory is as you’d expect–down. New properties entering the market -6% and total inventory down -15% year over year.
Positives? DOM or Days on the Market is down -33%! 50 days is the time and our MSI or Month’s Supply of Inventory is only 1.8 months. Put this in context: a “normal” market is 4-6 months supply, under that its a Seller’s market. We have a BIG TIME Seller’s Market!
Still, if you are a buyer keep at it! Especially if you are below the median home price of $575,000. Less competition and motivated Sellers are a good combination for you! Let us know if we can help! 707-322-8503! Mike Kelly.
Realtor.com came out with their 20 Hottest real estate markets in the nation. 11 of these are in California and we’ve added two NEW spots–Eureka and Fresno. Eureka is way up north on the coast of California. Isolated, older fishing community but it is very affordable as is Fresno which is in the “Valley”. “Valley” properties in the greatest state of California are fairly depressed and still have higher percentages of distressed homes. They have yet to get even close to their pre-bust highs. If you look at the top lists you’ll see 4 of these hottest market are in the California interior valleys—Sacramento, Stockton (at one time ground zero for the distressed market in California), Modesto and Fresno. What they all have in common is affordability. Median priced homes in these areas range from $270,000 to $317,000. Compare these prices with Santa Rosa (#13 on the list with a median price of $597,500).
Here are Sonoma County April Sales information. Big take-aways? Lack of inventory but increasing, Median home price up “only” 6% over last year. 1.5 Month’s Supply of Inventory (4-6 months is considered “normal”.
Average Days on the market is a remarkable 42 days. Note how this number has been dropping. Blame low inventory and big Buyer demand due to historically LOW interest rates in the upper 3% range.
Homes for sale by month is down -10% over last year–c’mon–let’s get those homes on the market!
New properties coming to the market is down slightly.
Indicator of future activity is the “Under Contract” properties down -5% over last year. Hmmmm?
Sold Properties by month is down -13%. This with historically low rates? Price wall happening?
Median Home price shows dramatic slowing of higher price activity.