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How Many “Bottoms” are there in a Real Estate Market? Mid range Bottom? Upper END Bottom–THE REAL BOTTOM?

Sonoma County, California homeowners are constantly being assailed on the latest “Dip” in the real estate market. Case/Shiller, our own Press Democrat–all constantly reporting prices are STILL coming down. I’ve included below some powerful graphs on the current Sonoma County Market Place. Going back 3 years and looking at the reporting “Quarters” one gets a much different “View”  on the marketplace. Like the statement says, “You’re entitled to your OWN opinion-but NOT your own FACTS!”

The following graph shows the “Sub-$300,000” Under-Contract properties over the past three years by “Quarter” reporting. NOTE 2008! I would venture a guess and say our “BOTTOM-BOTTOM’ was back then! Why so much activity–obviously because our prices have dropped off a cliff! So it would stand to reason our “Sub-$300,000” numbers would be through the roof and they ARE! More like through the Stratosphere! UP a whopping 409%!! WOW!


Now what about the OVERALL MARKET PLACE? Year over Year-NOT even going back three years–we are UP 49%! Now while our sales are NOT on fire, those in escrow continue to mount. CAVEAT–Many of those “under contract” properties are “Short-Sales”. They go in and stay in so this “build up” the “under contract” properties. But still–overall activity indicator is very POSITIVE!

Going back THREE QUARTERS for Sub $300K Under Contract is revealing also when you “isolate” the “Bank Properties” which includes not only REO (real estate owned–bank foreclosed homes) but ALSO Short-Sales. Once again, look at 2008! Remarkable numbers once again! As you can see-they are a major force in the first time buyer arena and under the $300,000 mark.

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